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Yes—but only if “city” means a functional urban region whose connected municipalities, suburbs and commuting zones are counted together. A single municipality with 100 million residents is a different and much less established proposition. The responsible way to prepare is to plan the region’s transport, housing, water, energy, climate protection, finance and democratic accountability as one system, while allowing several local governments to retain meaningful authority.
What does a “city of 100 million” actually mean?
The number has no single meaning until its boundary is specified. Urban growth routinely crosses municipal borders, so a continuous built-up area may contain many jurisdictions, while a metropolitan region also includes places linked by daily commuting even when open land separates them.
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The OECD’s functional definition starts with an urban centre of at least 50,000 people and adds its commuting zone. This approach measures the economic area people use, rather than stopping at an administrative line. It is the most useful starting point for a 100-million discussion because the practical problems—jobs, travel, housing, utilities and pollution—follow those connections.
Three boundaries produce three different “cities”
| Urban form | How the population is counted | What must be coordinated | Main authority challenge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single municipality | Residents inside one legally defined city government | Services and infrastructure under one administration | Extreme concentration of fiscal, political and operational power |
| Continuous built-up area | People living in an unbroken or nearly unbroken physical urban footprint, regardless of municipal borders | Land use, roads, transit, water, drainage and environmental systems crossing borders | Several governments must align standards and investment |
| Polycentric metropolitan region | A network of cities and towns plus their commuting zones, measured as one functional labour and services market | Regional transport, housing supply, economic development, climate adaptation and public-health capacity | Shared institutions need authority without erasing local representation |
For most plausible 100-million scenarios, the third model—or a combination of the second and third—is the realistic one. It may look like a megalopolis: multiple centres linked by rail, roads, digital networks and supply chains. Calling that arrangement one “city” is useful only if the governance and statistics make the relationship explicit.
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What the evidence says—and what it does not say
Large metropolitan areas are becoming more common. In the OECD’s dataset, 94 metropolitan areas exceeded 5 million inhabitants in 2015, compared with 51 in 1990. Those 94 areas contained 26% of the world’s metropolitan population in 2015. The figures describe metropolitan areas measured with the OECD’s fixed-boundary method; they do not show that any one city had 100 million residents, nor do they predict that a 100-million region is inevitable.
Long-range population tables demonstrate possibility, not certainty. Hoornweg and Pope’s 2017 scenario paper lists Lagos at 88.3 million in 2100 under one set of socioeconomic assumptions and extrapolation methods. Different assumptions about fertility, migration, mortality, economic change and the boundary used for “Lagos” can produce a different result. Treat 88.3 million as a modelled pathway, not a promise or a target.
The sensible conclusion is conditional: a connected urban region approaching 100 million inhabitants is conceivable over a long horizon, but no universal formula proves that it will occur or shows one best way to run it. Preparation should therefore be robust across several population and growth paths.
Why scale changes the governing problem
At this size, a failure in one network can affect tens of millions of people and several jurisdictions at once. A rail bottleneck can cut access to jobs; an unreliable electricity interconnector can shut water-treatment plants; a flood in an upstream district can damage downstream housing. The challenge is not simply building a larger city hall. It is making separate decisions behave like one regional system while preserving local knowledge.
UNDP’s 2025 discussion of rapid urban expansion states that “the future of the region’s cities will be determined not just by technology or investment, but by the quality of governance.” That observation points to the central lever: institutions that can raise and spend money transparently, coordinate across borders and include residents in choices that reshape their neighbourhoods.
A practical way to take charge of the future
The following sequence turns a vague population headline into an operating plan. It is a planning framework, not a prediction that any particular region will reach 100 million.
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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →1. Publish one boundary and several population scenarios
- Map the functional region. Show the built-up footprint, commuting flows, freight routes, watersheds, food-producing areas and hazard zones. Publish the municipal boundaries that sit inside it.
- Set a baseline year. Record population, household size, jobs, housing stock, water demand, electricity use, travel time, emissions and service coverage for the same year.
- Use a range, not one headline. Build at least low, central and high scenarios, such as a stable-population case, a strong-migration case and a rapid-growth case. State the fertility, migration, economic and climate assumptions behind each.
- Update on a fixed cycle. Recalculate the scenarios when census, migration or land-use evidence changes. A plan that cannot be revised is not resilient planning.
2. Create a regional compact with real authority
Neighbouring governments need a written compact that names which body decides what, how disputes are settled and how residents can challenge decisions. The compact should cover transport corridors, major housing sites, water basins, waste, energy interconnections, emergency response and air-quality standards.
Fiscal autonomy is essential. A regional body needs predictable revenue—such as agreed transfers, user charges or shared tax bases—rather than relying on one-off grants. Budgets, contracts, project performance and debt should be published in accessible formats. Local governments should keep authority over neighbourhood services and cultural priorities, while the regional level handles systems whose benefits and harms cross borders.
3. Put housing and jobs near reliable transport
A 100-million region cannot be managed by adding road lanes indefinitely. Use a network of multiple employment and service centres connected by frequent, high-capacity public transport. Align zoning, building approvals and infrastructure funding so homes are permitted where water, schools and transit can actually support them.
Track housing affordability by income group, not only average prices. Protect existing residents from displacement when a new rail line or regeneration project raises land values. Reserve land for social and below-market housing before speculation makes it unaffordable. Coordinate rental rules, tenant protections and construction standards across the commuting zone so households are not pushed from one municipality to another by policy differences.
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4. Design water, energy and waste as connected systems
Use the watershed and energy grid—not the municipal boundary—as the engineering unit. Diversify water sources, reduce leakage, protect recharge areas and require drought plans for each scenario. Link power planning to cooling demand, electric transport and critical facilities such as hospitals and treatment plants.
For waste, prioritize prevention, reuse and material recovery before disposal. Locate treatment and transfer facilities with transparent environmental criteria; otherwise poorer districts may carry disproportionate exposure. Publish service-level indicators such as hours of water supply, outage duration, collection coverage and treatment compliance by neighbourhood.
5. Make climate and nature part of the core budget
Floodplains, heat islands, coastal edges and landslide slopes should be mapped before land is released for development. Combine engineered protection with nature-based measures—wetlands, restored waterways, shade trees, permeable surfaces and protected open space—where they reduce risk and provide daily public benefits.
Every major project should disclose its lifetime climate exposure, operating cost and maintenance responsibility. A barrier that protects one district while shifting floodwater to another is not regional resilience. Emergency plans should identify evacuation routes, shelters, backup communications and support for people with disabilities, older residents and households without private transport.
6. Build inclusion into planning, not as a later consultation
Residents affected by a corridor, reservoir or redevelopment zone need information early enough to change the design. Use multilingual notices, accessible meetings, representative neighbourhood panels and published responses showing which proposals were accepted or rejected.
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Measure outcomes by gender, age, income, disability, tenure and location. A region can improve its average commute while leaving peripheral workers with longer, less safe trips. Equity indicators should influence investment decisions rather than appear only in an annual report.
7. Use technology as infrastructure, not as a substitute for institutions
Shared data standards can help agencies coordinate permits, service faults, traffic, public health and hazards. They do not remove the need for privacy rules, cybersecurity, procurement oversight or human appeals. Publish the purpose, retention period and access controls for personal data, and provide non-digital ways to obtain essential services.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What existing programmes teach about scale
Large programmes show that investment can be organized across many jurisdictions, but they do not prove that a single model works everywhere. UN-Habitat reported that India’s Smart Cities Mission had supported more than 7,800 projects and over USD 22 billion in investment across 100 Indian smart cities since 2015. The useful lesson is the value of a portfolio: projects can be staged, monitored and adjusted instead of betting the entire region on one megaproject. The figure is a programme total, not a measure of completed outcomes in every participating city.
UNDP reported support for more than 10 cities and states in 2025 and climate-resilience work reaching four million urban poor people in 19 Bangladeshi cities. These examples underscore that adaptation depends on local delivery and vulnerable residents’ access, not only on regional plans. They are Asia-Pacific experiences and should be adapted rather than treated as universal proof.
How to test whether the plan is working
Publish a small dashboard that connects regional goals to household experience. Useful measures include:
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- Median and worst-quartile travel time to major job and health centres.
- Homes affordable to each income band within a defined distance of frequent transit.
- Hours of reliable water and electricity service, reported by district.
- Annual flood, heat and air-pollution exposure, with deaths and service interruptions.
- Share of residents within walking distance of green space, schools and primary care.
- Housing displacement, eviction and homelessness rates after major investments.
- Regional revenue collected, spent and independently audited.
- Project delivery against cost, schedule, maintenance and emissions commitments.
Set trigger points that force a policy change. For example, if new housing is not keeping pace with job growth, pause additional commercial approvals until infrastructure and affordability measures catch up. If a flood-protection project increases risk elsewhere, redesign it before expansion.
Common failure modes and their fixes
Counting a region as one city without governing it as one
A headline population can conceal fragmented fares, building codes, emergency systems and budgets. Fix this by publishing the functional boundary and giving a regional institution authority over cross-border networks.
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New rail, treatment plants and digital systems fail when operating budgets are uncertain. Require a whole-life cost plan, a named maintenance agency and a protected revenue source before construction.
Chasing a technology showcase
Sensors and dashboards cannot compensate for unsafe housing, missing drainage or unaffordable fares. Rank projects by service improvement, resilience and equity; use technology only where it solves a defined problem.
Using one forecast as a promise
Long-range projections vary with assumptions and boundaries. Keep multiple scenarios alive, disclose uncertainty and design investments that can be expanded, converted or retired without stranding communities.
Letting participation become symbolic
Consultation without influence breeds distrust. Publish alternatives, costs, trade-offs and a written response to residents’ recommendations, then allow independent review of major decisions.
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Before approving a regional project or reform, ask five questions:
- Which population and boundary does the decision serve?
- Which neighbouring jurisdictions bear costs or receive benefits?
- Who pays for operations and maintenance after opening day?
- How does the proposal perform under the low, central and high scenarios?
- What evidence would trigger redesign, delay or cancellation?
If those questions have public answers, a 100-million-person future becomes a manageable governance exercise rather than a spectacle. If they do not, the population number is only a slogan. The most durable strategy is a polycentric region with accountable shared institutions, local democratic control and infrastructure designed for uncertainty.
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